01
TB@
DALO/U 47.5home favoritelaying 10record edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.113/play (off +0.1981 / def +0.1926)
your pick
DALLOCK−10ALGORITH.US
Every NFL pick, built entirely from data.
15games
1locks
1strong
13upset flags
Your pick’em sheets
Tick a team on each matchup below. Picks lock at kickoff. Scores fill in here as games go final. Sheets live in this browser — use Sync code to carry them to another device.
Fool to bet against
Bank These
The signals all point the same way. Pencil them in.
CINSTRONG −7.5EPA edge +0.393/play (off +0.0482 / def -0.0626)Where the crowd is wrong
Break From the Pack
Every family of signals fires. Take the dog to separate your card from the pool.
No underdog cleared the break-away threshold. Chalk is the smart card this week.
Should-Win
The favorite in every game, ranked by conviction. The bar is confidence; chips show why. Bank it = safe enough to pencil in.
TB@DALO/U 47.5DALLOCK−1002
CIN@
MIAO/U 45.5road favoritelaying 7.5record edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.393/play (off +0.0482 / def -0.0626)
your pick
CINBANK IT−7.503
HOU@
TENO/U 40.5road favorite
your pick
HOUSOLID−6.504
DET@
ARIO/U 53.5road favorite
your pick
DETSOLID−5.505
PHI@
JAXO/U 42.5home favoriteEPA edge +0.389/play (off +0.1465 / def -0.1087)
your pick
JAXSOLID−3.506
LV@
NEO/U 45.5home favorite
your pick
NESOLID−3.507
DEN@
LACO/U 43.5road favoriterecord edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.103/play (off -0.0503 / def +0.0231)
your pick
DENSOLID−3.508
BAL@
ATLO/U 46.5road favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-win⚠ Lamar Jackson (Questionable) hobbled — lean lighterEPA edge +0.242/play (off +0.1706 / def +0.0285)
your pick
BALSOLID−3.509
NYG@
WSHO/U 44.5home favorite⚠ backup QB (Dyami Brown in for Jayden Daniels (Out)) — WILDCARD, lean lighterEPA edge +0.112/play (off +0.0228 / def +0.071)
your pick
WSHLEAN−310
SF@
SEAO/U 46.5home favorite
your pick
SEALEAN−311
IND@
PITO/U 44.5home favorite
your pick
PITLEAN−2.512
BUF@
LARO/U 53.5home favorite
your pick
LARLEAN−2.513
CHI@
GBO/U 44.5road favorite⚠ backup QB (Case Keenum in for Caleb Williams (Out)) — WILDCARD, lean lighterEPA edge +0.374/play (off +0.1208 / def -0.0522)
your pick
CHILEAN−1.514
MIN@
NOO/U 43.5road favoriterecord edge 4-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.15/play (off -0.0968 / def -0.2037)
your pick
MINLEAN−1.515
CLE@
NYJO/U 39.5home favorite
your pick
NYJLEAN−1.5Upset Radar
Underdogs the model backs against the grain — ranked by signal strength. This is the edge over your pool.
How a dog scores
Situationalhome dog +2thin line ≤3 +2road fav +1dog hotter +2coin-flip +1
QBfav hobbled +3fav on backup +2dog on backup (Keenum) +1dog hobbled −2
Efficiency · EPAdog more efficient +3fav record > EPA (crash) +2dog due to bounce +1
8+ break from the pack 5–7 live dog 3–4 long shot
7signal
GBoverCHILIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (1.5)fav on the roadFAV on a backup (Case Keenum in for Caleb Williams (Out)) — WILDCARD
7signal
NOoverMINLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (1.5)fav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#10 eff, crash +0.29) — regression risk
7signal
SFoverSEALIVE DOGthin line (3)dog hotter (3-win vs SEA 2-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.3396 vs +0.1713/play) — mispriced
7signal
BUFoverLARLIVE DOGthin line (2.5)dog hotter (3-win vs LAR 2-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.1302 vs +0.0417/play) — mispriced
6signal
NYGoverWSHLIVE DOGthin line (3)dog hotter (3-win vs WSH 1-win)FAV on a backup (Dyami Brown in for Jayden Daniels (Out)) — WILDCARD
6signal
ATLoverBALLIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadFAV QB hobbled: Lamar Jackson (Questionable)
5signal
LVoverNELIVE DOGdog hotter (3-win vs NE 2-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.2091 vs -0.0806/play) — mispriceddog D pressures 21% of dropbacks
5signal
LACoverDENLIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#20 eff, crash +0.28) — regression risk
4signal
TENoverHOULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roaddog better than its record (EPA #23) — due to bounce
4signal
CLEoverNYJLONG SHOTthin line (1.5)dog hotter (3-win vs NYJ 1-win)
3signal
MIAoverCINLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
INDoverPITLONG SHOTthin line (2.5)both winning — coin flip
3signal
ARIoverDETLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
Monday-Night Tiebreaker
Closest guess to the combined final total wins a tie. Pick a number.
BUF@LAR53.5combined total