ALGORITH.US
Every MLB pick, built entirely from data.
MLB
SEP 30/2026
updated Oct 1, 2026 · 01:49 UTC
4games
0locks
0strong
2upset flags
Fool to bet against

Bank These

The signals all point the same way. Pencil them in.

No clean locks this week — even the chalk has a flaw. Play the favorites straight.

Where the crowd is wrong

Break From the Pack

Every family of signals fires. Take the dog to separate your card from the pool.

No underdog cleared the break-away threshold. Chalk is the smart card this week.

Should-Win

The favorite in every game, ranked by conviction. The bar is confidence; chips show why. Bank it = safe enough to pencil in.

01
CHCCHC@SDSDO/U 7
home favoriterecord edge 91-win vs 89-win
SDSDSOLIDML -149
02
PHIPHI@ATLATLO/U —
home favoriterecord edge 94-win vs 88-winEPA edge +0.125/play (off +0.0198 / def -0.1233)
ATLATLTOSS-UPPK
03
CHWCHW@HOUHOUO/U —
home favorite
HOUHOUTOSS-UPPK
04
BOSBOS@NYYNYYO/U —
home favoriterecord edge 93-win vs 87-win
NYYNYYTOSS-UPPK

Upset Radar

Underdogs the model backs against the grain — ranked by signal strength. This is the edge over your pool.

How a dog scores
Situationalhome dog +2thin line ≤3 +2road fav +1dog hotter +2coin-flip +1
Efficiency · EPAdog more efficient +3fav record > EPA (crash) +2dog due to bounce +1
8+ break from the pack   5–7 live dog   3–4 long shot
5signal
CHWCHWoverHOUHOULIVE DOG
dog hotter (84-win vs HOU 81-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.0691 vs -0.0395/play) — mispriced
3signal
CHCCHCoverSDSDLONG SHOT
EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.1815 vs +0.0505/play) — mispriced

Late-Window Tiebreaker

Closest guess to the combined final total wins a tie. Pick a number.

BOSBOS@NYYNYY
—combined total
CHCCHC@SDSD
7combined total