ALGORITH.US
Every NFL pick, built entirely from data.
NFL
WEEK 4/2026
updated Oct 1, 2026 · 01:49 UTC
16games
2locks
1strong
11upset flags
Fool to bet against

Bank These

The signals all point the same way. Pencil them in.

MINMINLOCK −10.5EPA edge +0.389/play (off -0.0968 / def -0.2037)
SEASEASTRONG −7EPA edge +0.348/play (off +0.0533 / def -0.118)
Where the crowd is wrong

Break From the Pack

Every family of signals fires. Take the dog to separate your card from the pool.

CLECLEover PIT11EPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0332 vs -0.0905/play) — mispriced
TBTBover GB9EPA says dog is BETTER (-0.1076 vs -0.201/play) — mispriced

Should-Win

The favorite in every game, ranked by conviction. The bar is confidence; chips show why. Bank it = safe enough to pencil in.

01
TENTEN@BALBALO/U 42.5
home favoritelaying 11.5record edge 2-win vs 0-win⚠ Lamar Jackson (Questionable) hobbled — lean lighterEPA edge +0.234/play (off +0.1706 / def +0.0285)
BALBALLOCK−11.5
02
MIAMIA@MINMINO/U 38.5
home favoritelaying 10.5record edge 3-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.389/play (off -0.0968 / def -0.2037)
MINMINBANK IT−10.5
03
LACLAC@SEASEAO/U 42.5
home favoritelaying 7record edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.348/play (off +0.0533 / def -0.118)
SEASEABANK IT−7
04
NENE@BUFBUFO/U 48.5
home favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.211/play (off +0.2215 / def +0.0913)
BUFBUFSOLID−6.5
05
KCKC@LVLVO/U 47.5
road favorite
KCKCSOLID−4.5
06
INDIND@WSHWSHO/U 47.5
road favorite
INDINDSOLID−3.5
07
NYJNYJ@CHICHIO/U 43.5
home favorite⚠ backup QB (Case Keenum in for Caleb Williams (Doubtful)) — WILDCARD, lean lighterEPA edge +0.112/play (off +0.1208 / def -0.0522)
CHICHISOLID−3.5
08
GBGB@TBTBO/U 38.5
road favorite
GBGBSOLID−3.5
09
DETDET@CARCARO/U 51.5
road favorite
DETDETSOLID−3.5
10
LARLAR@PHIPHIO/U 43.5
road favoriteEPA edge +0.176/play (off +0.0024 / def -0.0393)
LARLARLEAN−3
11
DALDAL@HOUHOUO/U 48.5
home favorite
HOUHOULEAN−3
12
DENDEN@SFSFO/U 47.5
home favoriteEPA edge +0.413/play (off +0.3303 / def -0.0093)
SFSFLEAN−3
13
PITPIT@CLECLEO/U 38.5
road favorite
PITPITLEAN−2.5
14
JAXJAX@CINCINO/U 51.5
home favorite
CINCINLEAN−2.5
15
ARIARI@NYGNYGO/U 44.5
road favorite
ARIARILEAN−2.5
16
ATLATL@NONOO/U 47.5
home favorite
NONOLEAN−2.5

Upset Radar

Underdogs the model backs against the grain — ranked by signal strength. This is the edge over your pool.

How a dog scores
Situationalhome dog +2thin line ≤3 +2road fav +1dog hotter +2coin-flip +1
QBfav hobbled +3fav on backup +2dog on backup (Keenum) +1dog hobbled −2
Efficiency · EPAdog more efficient +3fav record > EPA (crash) +2dog due to bounce +1
8+ break from the pack   5–7 live dog   3–4 long shot
11signal
CLECLEoverPITPITBREAK FROM THE PACK
HOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the roadboth winning — coin flipEPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0332 vs -0.0905/play) — mispricedFAV record outruns EPA (#22 eff, crash +0.344) — regression risk
9signal
TBTBoverGBGBBREAK FROM THE PACK
HOME dogfav on the road⚑ dog on a backup (Jalon Daniels in for Baker Mayfield (Out)) — Keenum factor, live wildcardEPA says dog is BETTER (-0.1076 vs -0.201/play) — mispricedFAV record outruns EPA (#31 eff, crash +0.301) — regression risk
7signal
JAXJAXoverCINCINLIVE DOG
thin line (2.5)both winning — coin flipEPA says dog is BETTER (+0.2552 vs +0.1108/play) — mispriceddog better than its record (EPA #2) — due to bounce
7signal
NYGNYGoverARIARILIVE DOG
HOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the roaddog hotter (2-win vs ARI 1-win)
7signal
PHIPHIoverLARLARLIVE DOG
HOME dogthin line (3)fav on the roaddog hotter (2-win vs LAR 1-win)
7signal
DALDALoverHOUHOULIVE DOG
thin line (3)dog hotter (1-win vs HOU 0-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.0055 vs -0.0899/play) — mispriced
7signal
CARCARoverDETDETLIVE DOG
HOME dogfav on the roadEPA says dog is BETTER (+0.0459 vs -0.0361/play) — mispriceddog better than its record (EPA #12) — due to bounce
6signal
WSHWSHoverINDINDLIVE DOG
HOME dogfav on the roadEPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0482 vs -0.1599/play) — mispriced
4signal
TENTENoverBALBALLONG SHOT
FAV QB hobbled: Lamar Jackson (Questionable)dog better than its record (EPA #23) — due to bounce
4signal
LVLVoverKCKCLONG SHOT
HOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flipdog D pressures 21% of dropbacks
3signal
NYJNYJoverCHICHILONG SHOT
FAV on a backup (Case Keenum in for Caleb Williams (Doubtful)) — WILDCARDdog better than its record (EPA #11) — due to bounce

Monday-Night Tiebreaker

Closest guess to the combined final total wins a tie. Pick a number.

ATLATL@NONO
47.5combined total