01
STAN@#3
NDO/U 53.5home favoritelaying 37.5record edge 5-win vs 2-winranked #3 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.358/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)
your pick
#3NDBANK IT−37.5
NDBANK IT−37.5ALGORITH.US
Every college pick, built entirely from data.
58games
19locks
11strong
29upset flags
Your pick’em sheets
Tick a team on each matchup below. Picks lock at kickoff. Scores fill in here as games go final. Sheets live in this browser — use Sync code to carry them to another device.
Fool to bet against
Bank These
The signals all point the same way. Pencil them in.
#3NDLOCK −37.5EPA edge +0.358/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)
NDLOCK −37.5EPA edge +0.358/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)
NULOCK −36.5EPA edge +0.316/play (off +0.0152 / def -0.0496)#5
OSULOCK −34.5EPA edge +0.252/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
OSULOCK −34.5EPA edge +0.252/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
UNTLOCK −27.5EPA edge +0.216/play (off +0.0312 / def +0.0894)
ASULOCK −21.5EPA edge +0.159/play (off -0.0028 / def -0.0336)
TOLLOCK −19.5EPA edge +0.182/play (off -0.0008 / def -0.0026)
MEMLOCK −14.5EPA edge +0.163/play (off +0.0562 / def +0.0384)
LIBLOCK −13.5EPA edge +0.164/play (off +0.0082 / def -0.0146)
WMULOCK −13.5EPA edge +0.148/play (off -0.0748 / def +0.0014)#15
TENNLOCK −13.5EPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.1022 / def -0.0686)
TENNLOCK −13.5EPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.1022 / def -0.0686)
AFALOCK −11.5EPA edge +0.201/play (off -0.0038 / def +0.0354)#8
BYULOCK −10.5EPA edge +0.13/play (off +0.0772 / def -0.0796)
BYULOCK −10.5EPA edge +0.13/play (off +0.0772 / def -0.0796)
ECULOCK −10EPA edge +0.123/play (off -0.0318 / def +0.0004)
VTSTRONG −9.5EPA edge +0.152/play (off +0.0632 / def -0.0556)#10
LSUSTRONG −9.5EPA edge +0.132/play (off +0.0812 / def -0.1276)
LSUSTRONG −9.5EPA edge +0.132/play (off +0.0812 / def -0.1276)
NEVSTRONG −9.5EPA edge +0.168/play (off -0.0498 / def +0.0224)
UVASTRONG −9.5EPA edge +0.158/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0806)
JMUSTRONG −8.5EPA edge +0.183/play (off +0.0282 / def -0.0666)Where the crowd is wrong
Break From the Pack
Every family of signals fires. Take the dog to separate your card from the pool.
ULover LT9EPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0312 vs -0.1022/play) — mispriced#2
UGAover ALA8EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.2938 vs +0.2258/play) — mispriced
UGAover ALA8EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.2938 vs +0.2258/play) — mispricedShould-Win
The favorite in every game, ranked by conviction. The bar is confidence; chips show why. Bank it = safe enough to pencil in.
STAN@#3NDO/U 53.502
BALL@NUO/U 52.5home favoritelaying 36.5record edge 3-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.316/play (off +0.0152 / def -0.0496)
your pick
NUBANK IT−36.503
MD@#5OSUO/U 56.5home favoritelaying 34.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #5 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.252/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
your pick
#5OSUBANK IT−34.5
OSUBANK IT−34.504
CLT@UNTO/U 59.5home favoritelaying 27.5record edge 3-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.216/play (off +0.0312 / def +0.0894)
your pick
UNTBANK IT−27.505
HAW@ASUO/U 51.5home favoritelaying 21.5EPA edge +0.159/play (off -0.0028 / def -0.0336)
your pick
ASUBANK IT−21.506
BUFF@TOLO/U 54.5home favoritelaying 19.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.182/play (off -0.0008 / def -0.0026)
your pick
TOLBANK IT−19.507
UAB@MEMO/U 58.5home favoritelaying 14.5EPA edge +0.163/play (off +0.0562 / def +0.0384)
your pick
MEMBANK IT−14.508
SC@#16
FLAO/U 62.5home favoritelaying 14record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #16 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.108/play (off +0.1222 / def -0.0536)
your pick
#16FLALOCK−14
FLALOCK−1409
SDSU@
ORSTO/U 55.5home favoritelaying 14
your pick
ORSTLOCK−1410
SHSU@LIBO/U 52.5home favoritelaying 13.5record edge 4-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.164/play (off +0.0082 / def -0.0146)
your pick
LIBBANK IT−13.511
KENT@WMUO/U 43.5home favoritelaying 13.5EPA edge +0.148/play (off -0.0748 / def +0.0014)
your pick
WMUBANK IT−13.512
#15TENN@
ARKO/U 49.5
TENN@ARKO/U 49.5road favoritelaying 13.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #15 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.1022 / def -0.0686)
your pick
#15TENNBANK IT−13.5
TENNBANK IT−13.513
#21
UCLA@#13
OREO/U 59.5
UCLA@#13OREO/U 59.5home favoritelaying 11.5ranking gap (#13 vs #21)
your pick
#13ORELOCK−11.5
ORELOCK−11.514
AFA@
NIUO/U 47.5road favoritelaying 11.5record edge 3-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.201/play (off -0.0038 / def +0.0354)
your pick
AFABANK IT−11.515
USM@
TROYO/U 49.5home favoritelaying 10.5
your pick
TROYLOCK−10.516
ISU@#8BYUO/U 48.5home favoritelaying 10.5ranked #8 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.13/play (off +0.0772 / def -0.0796)
your pick
#8BYUBANK IT−10.5
BYUBANK IT−10.517
ODU@
APPO/U 50.5home favoritelaying 10record edge 3-win vs 1-win
your pick
APPLOCK−1018
#9
MISS@
VANO/U 59.5
MISS@VANO/U 59.5road favoritelaying 10ranked #9 vs unranked
your pick
#9MISSLOCK−10
MISSLOCK−1019
RICE@ECUO/U 49.5home favoritelaying 10EPA edge +0.123/play (off -0.0318 / def +0.0004)
your pick
ECUBANK IT−1020
UCF@#18
OKSTO/U 53.5home favoritelaying 9.5ranked #18 vs unranked
your pick
#18OKSTSTRONG−9.5
OKSTSTRONG−9.521
VT@
CALO/U 53.5road favoritelaying 9.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.152/play (off +0.0632 / def -0.0556)
your pick
VTBANK IT−9.522
#10LSU@
UKO/U 53.5
LSU@UKO/U 53.5road favoritelaying 9.5ranked #10 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.132/play (off +0.0812 / def -0.1276)
your pick
#10LSUBANK IT−9.5
LSUBANK IT−9.523
NEV@
UTEPO/U 49.5road favoritelaying 9.5EPA edge +0.168/play (off -0.0498 / def +0.0224)
your pick
NEVBANK IT−9.524
SYR@UVAO/U 49.5home favoritelaying 9.5EPA edge +0.158/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0806)
your pick
UVABANK IT−9.525
JMU@
GASOO/U 53.5road favoritelaying 8.5record edge 5-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.183/play (off +0.0282 / def -0.0666)
your pick
JMUBANK IT−8.526
#7
IU@
NEBO/U 52.5
IU@NEBO/U 52.5road favoritelaying 7.5ranked #7 vs unranked
your pick
#7IUSTRONG−7.5
IUSTRONG−7.527
#1
TEX@
OUO/U 39.5
TEX@OUO/U 39.5road favoritelaying 7.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #1 vs unranked
your pick
#1TEXSTRONG−7.5
TEXSTRONG−7.528
USF@
UTSAO/U 52.5home favoritelaying 7
your pick
UTSASTRONG−729
SAC@
BGSUO/U 42.5home favoritelaying 7
your pick
BGSUSTRONG−730
DUKE@
GTO/U 49.5road favoritelaying 7record edge 4-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.103/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0376)
your pick
DUKESTRONG−731
WYO@
SJSUO/U 43.5home favorite
your pick
SJSUSOLID−6.532
EMU@
AKRO/U 50.5road favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-win
your pick
EMUSOLID−6.533
#23
BOIS@
FRESO/U 48.5
BOIS@FRESO/U 48.5road favoriteranked #23 vs unranked
your pick
#23BOISSOLID−6.5
BOISSOLID−6.534
NMSU@
FIUO/U 46.5home favoriteEPA edge +0.101/play (off -0.0868 / def -0.0076)
your pick
FIUSOLID−5.535
FSU@
LOUO/U 58.5home favorite
your pick
LOUSOLID−5.536
TA&M@#14
MIZO/U 48.5home favoriteranked #14 vs unranked
your pick
#14MIZSOLID−4.5
MIZSOLID−4.537
WSU@
USUO/U 42.5home favorite
your pick
USUSOLID−438
UNC@#25
PITTO/U 46.5home favoriterecord edge 5-win vs 2-winranked #25 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.119/play (off +0.0542 / def -0.0876)
your pick
#25PITTSOLID−4
PITTSOLID−439
WAKE@
NCSUO/U 60.5road favorite
your pick
WAKESOLID−3.540
TULN@
ARMYO/U 46.5home favorite
your pick
ARMYSOLID−3.541
ILL@
MSUO/U 49.5road favorite
your pick
ILLSOLID−3.542
CMU@
OHIOO/U 47.5home favorite
your pick
OHIOSOLID−3.543
CONN@
TEMO/U 54.5home favorite
your pick
TEMSOLID−3.544
JXST@
KENNO/U 49.5road favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-win
your pick
JXSTLEAN−345
ARIZ@
WVUO/U 60.5road favorite
your pick
ARIZLEAN−346
NDSU@
UNLVO/U 49.5road favoriterecord edge 5-win vs 3-winEPA edge +0.101/play (off +0.0202 / def -0.0526)
your pick
NDSULEAN−347
CCU@
MRSHO/U 57.5home favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-win
your pick
MRSHLEAN−348
MOST@
WKUO/U 55.5home favorite
your pick
WKULEAN−2.549
#20
IOWA@
WASHO/U 41.5
IOWA@WASHO/U 41.5home favorite
your pick
WASHLEAN−2.550
M-OH@
MASSO/U 47.5road favorite
your pick
M-OHLEAN−2.551
#22
HOU@
KSUO/U 55.5
HOU@KSUO/U 55.5home favorite
your pick
KSULEAN−2.552
TLSA@
NAVYO/U 49.5home favorite
your pick
NAVYLEAN−2.553
UL@
LTO/U 48.5home favorite
your pick
LTLEAN−2.554
MINN@
PURO/U 51.5road favoriterecord edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.133/play (off +0.0112 / def -0.0496)
your pick
MINNLEAN−2.555
USA@
ARSTO/U 57.5home favorite
your pick
ARSTLEAN−1.556
#2UGA@#6
ALAO/U 55.5
UGA@#6ALAO/U 55.5home favorite
your pick
#6ALALEAN−1.5
ALALEAN−1.557
#19
USC@
PSUO/U 55.5
USC@PSUO/U 55.5home favorite
your pick
PSULEAN−1.558
KU@#12
UTAHO/U 52.5home favoriterecord edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #12 vs unrankedno line posted — ranked by poll/EPA
your pick
#12UTAHTOSS-UPno line
UTAHTOSS-UPno lineUpset Radar
Underdogs the model backs against the grain — ranked by signal strength. This is the edge over your pool.
How a dog scores
Situationalhome dog +2thin line ≤3 +2road fav +1dog hotter +2coin-flip +1
Rankingranked dog vs unranked +2higher-ranked dog +2
Efficiency · EPAdog more efficient +3fav record > EPA (crash) +2dog due to bounce +1
8+ break from the pack 5–7 live dog 3–4 long shot
9signal
ULoverLTBREAK FROM THE PACKthin line (2.5)dog hotter (4-win vs LT 2-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0312 vs -0.1022/play) — mispricedFAV record outruns EPA (#108 eff, crash +0.281) — regression risk
8signal
#2UGAover#6ALABREAK FROM THE PACK
UGAover#6ALABREAK FROM THE PACKthin line (1.5)both winning — coin fliphigher-ranked dog (#2 over #6)EPA says dog is BETTER (+0.2938 vs +0.2258/play) — mispriced
7signal
MASSoverM-OHLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the roaddog hotter (4-win vs M-OH 2-win)
7signal
UNLVoverNDSULIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (3)fav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#45 eff, crash +0.321) — regression risk
6signal
#20IOWAoverWASHLIVE DOG
IOWAoverWASHLIVE DOGthin line (2.5)dog hotter (4-win vs WASH 3-win)RANKED dog (#20) over an unranked fav
6signal
#22HOUoverKSULIVE DOG
HOUoverKSULIVE DOGthin line (2.5)dog hotter (4-win vs KSU 3-win)RANKED dog (#22) over an unranked favdog D pressures 21% of dropbacks
6signal
#19USCoverPSULIVE DOG
USCoverPSULIVE DOGthin line (1.5)dog hotter (5-win vs PSU 3-win)RANKED dog (#19) over an unranked fav
5signal
KENNoverJXSTLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (3)fav on the road
5signal
WVUoverARIZLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (3)fav on the road
5signal
AKRoverEMULIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#127 eff, crash +0.42) — regression risk
5signal
NIUoverAFALIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#83 eff, crash +0.349) — regression risk
5signal
PURoverMINNLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the road
4signal
USAoverARSTLONG SHOTthin line (1.5)dog hotter (3-win vs ARST 2-win)
4signal
NEBover#7IULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
OUover#1TEXLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roaddog better than its record (EPA #27) — due to bouncedog D pressures 22% of dropbacks
4signal
VANover#9MISSLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
GToverDUKELONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roaddog better than its record (EPA #69) — due to bounce
4signal
MSUoverILLLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
TLSAoverNAVYLONG SHOTthin line (2.5)dog hotter (3-win vs NAVY 1-win)
4signal
UKover#10LSULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
CCUoverMRSHLONG SHOTthin line (3)FAV record outruns EPA (#115 eff, crash +0.432) — regression risk
4signal
FRESover#23BOISLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
3signal
USFoverUTSALONG SHOTboth winning — coin flipFAV record outruns EPA (#73 eff, crash +0.326) — regression risk
3signal
NCSUoverWAKELONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
CALoverVTLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
CMUoverOHIOLONG SHOTboth winning — coin flipFAV record outruns EPA (#109 eff, crash +0.388) — regression risk
3signal
ARKover#15TENNLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
UTEPoverNEVLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
GASOoverJMULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
Saturday-Night Tiebreaker
Closest guess to the combined final total wins a tie. Pick a number.
KU@#12UTAH52.5combined total
#23BOIS@FRES
BOIS@FRES48.5combined total