01
MCN@#11
LSUO/U 60.5home favoritelaying 53.5ranked #11 vs unranked
#11LSUBANK IT−53.5
LSUBANK IT−53.5ALGORITH.US
Every college pick, built entirely from data.
59games
27locks
3strong
31upset flags
Fool to bet against
Bank These
The signals all point the same way. Pencil them in.
#11LSULOCK −53.5ranked #11 vs unranked
LSULOCK −53.5ranked #11 vs unranked
FAULOCK −43.5record edge 3-win vs 1-win
UABLOCK −30.5laying 30.5#2
UGALOCK −25.5EPA edge +0.226/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1436)
UGALOCK −25.5EPA edge +0.226/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1436)#6
IULOCK −23.5EPA edge +0.284/play (off +0.1372 / def -0.1246)
IULOCK −23.5EPA edge +0.284/play (off +0.1372 / def -0.1246)
UNMLOCK −22.5EPA edge +0.311/play (off +0.0132 / def -0.0576)#3
NDLOCK −21EPA edge +0.251/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)
NDLOCK −21EPA edge +0.251/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)#21
SMULOCK −21EPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.0912 / def -0.0386)
SMULOCK −21EPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.0912 / def -0.0386)
MEMLOCK −20.5EPA edge +0.292/play (off +0.0562 / def +0.0384)#22
BOISLOCK −20.5EPA edge +0.165/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0136)
BOISLOCK −20.5EPA edge +0.165/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0136)
TOLLOCK −19.5EPA edge +0.253/play (off -0.0008 / def -0.0026)
JMULOCK −19.5EPA edge +0.224/play (off +0.0282 / def -0.0666)
KULOCK −18.5EPA edge +0.166/play (off -0.0018 / def -0.0036)
NDSULOCK −18.5EPA edge +0.202/play (off +0.0202 / def -0.0526)#4
MIALOCK −16.5EPA edge +0.209/play (off +0.1292 / def -0.1216)
MIALOCK −16.5EPA edge +0.209/play (off +0.1292 / def -0.1216)#5
OSULOCK −14.5EPA edge +0.144/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
OSULOCK −14.5EPA edge +0.144/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
NEBLOCK −14.5EPA edge +0.132/play (off +0.0862 / def -0.0786)
USALOCK −14EPA edge +0.136/play (off -0.0268 / def +0.1264)
M-OHLOCK −13.5EPA edge +0.221/play (off -0.0208 / def +0.0274)#12
TTULOCK −12.5EPA edge +0.228/play (off +0.1092 / def -0.0856)
TTULOCK −12.5EPA edge +0.228/play (off +0.1092 / def -0.0856)
UTSALOCK −11.5EPA edge +0.141/play (off +0.0342 / def +0.0484)
ILLLOCK −10EPA edge +0.149/play (off +0.0772 / def +0.0004)
LIBSTRONG −7EPA edge +0.131/play (off +0.0082 / def -0.0146)Where the crowd is wrong
Break From the Pack
Every family of signals fires. Take the dog to separate your card from the pool.
No underdog cleared the break-away threshold. Chalk is the smart card this week.
Should-Win
The favorite in every game, ranked by conviction. The bar is confidence; chips show why. Bank it = safe enough to pencil in.
MCN@#11LSUO/U 60.502
TXSO@FAUO/U 60.5home favoritelaying 43.5record edge 3-win vs 1-win
FAUBANK IT−43.503
SAM@UABO/U 50.5home favoritelaying 30.5
UABBANK IT−30.504
VAN@#2UGAO/U 50.5home favoritelaying 25.5ranked #2 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.226/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1436)
#2UGABANK IT−25.5
UGABANK IT−25.505
#6IU@
RUTGO/U 56.5
IU@RUTGO/U 56.5road favoritelaying 23.5record edge 4-win vs 1-winranked #6 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.284/play (off +0.1372 / def -0.1246)
#6IUBANK IT−23.5
IUBANK IT−23.506
UTEP@UNMO/U 48.5home favoritelaying 22.5record edge 3-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.311/play (off +0.0132 / def -0.0576)
UNMBANK IT−22.507
#3ND@
UNCO/U 47.5
ND@UNCO/U 47.5road favoritelaying 21record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #3 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.251/play (off +0.1392 / def -0.1346)
#3NDBANK IT−21
NDBANK IT−2108
BC@#21SMUO/U 55.5home favoritelaying 21ranked #21 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.181/play (off +0.0912 / def -0.0386)
#21SMUBANK IT−21
SMUBANK IT−2109
MEM@
CLTO/U 52.5road favoritelaying 20.5record edge 3-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.292/play (off +0.0562 / def +0.0384)
MEMBANK IT−20.510
USU@#22BOISO/U 51.5home favoritelaying 20.5record edge 3-win vs 1-winranked #22 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.165/play (off +0.0582 / def -0.0136)
#22BOISBANK IT−20.5
BOISBANK IT−20.511
TOL@
BALLO/U 52.5road favoritelaying 19.5record edge 3-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.253/play (off -0.0008 / def -0.0026)
TOLBANK IT−19.512
MRSH@JMUO/U 56.5home favoritelaying 19.5EPA edge +0.224/play (off +0.0282 / def -0.0666)
JMUBANK IT−19.513
MTSU@KUO/U 49.5home favoritelaying 18.5EPA edge +0.166/play (off -0.0018 / def -0.0036)
KUBANK IT−18.514
WYO@NDSUO/U 45.5home favoritelaying 18.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.202/play (off +0.0202 / def -0.0526)
NDSUBANK IT−18.515
#4MIA@
CLEMO/U 47.5
MIA@CLEMO/U 47.5road favoritelaying 16.5ranked #4 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.209/play (off +0.1292 / def -0.1216)
#4MIABANK IT−16.5
MIABANK IT−16.516
#5OSU@#14
IOWAO/U 45.5
OSU@#14IOWAO/U 45.5road favoritelaying 14.5ranking gap (#5 vs #14)EPA edge +0.144/play (off +0.1502 / def -0.1346)
#5OSUBANK IT−14.5
OSUBANK IT−14.517
MD@NEBO/U 52.5home favoritelaying 14.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.132/play (off +0.0862 / def -0.0786)
NEBBANK IT−14.518
ARK@
TA&MO/U 50.5home favoritelaying 14
TA&MLOCK−1419
ULM@USAO/U 57.5home favoritelaying 14record edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.136/play (off -0.0268 / def +0.1264)
USABANK IT−1420
STAN@
WAKEO/U 53.5home favoritelaying 13.5EPA edge +0.116/play (off +0.0252 / def -0.0066)
WAKELOCK−13.521
WMU@
BUFFO/U 46.5road favoritelaying 13.5EPA edge +0.104/play (off -0.0748 / def +0.0014)
WMULOCK−13.522
BGSU@M-OHO/U 43.5home favoritelaying 13.5record edge 2-win vs 0-winEPA edge +0.221/play (off -0.0208 / def +0.0274)
M-OHBANK IT−13.523
#12TTU@
COLOO/U 50.5
TTU@COLOO/U 50.5road favoritelaying 12.5record edge 4-win vs 2-winranked #12 vs unrankedEPA edge +0.228/play (off +0.1092 / def -0.0856)
#12TTUBANK IT−12.5
TTUBANK IT−12.524
UCF@#20
HOUO/U 51.5home favoritelaying 11.5ranked #20 vs unranked
#20HOULOCK−11.5
HOULOCK−11.525
UTSA@
RICEO/U 56.5road favoritelaying 11.5record edge 3-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.141/play (off +0.0342 / def +0.0484)
UTSABANK IT−11.526
MSU@
WISO/U 43.5home favoritelaying 10
WISLOCK−1027
PUR@ILLO/U 61.5home favoritelaying 10EPA edge +0.149/play (off +0.0772 / def +0.0004)
ILLBANK IT−1028
WASH@#18
USCO/U 58.5home favoritelaying 9.5ranked #18 vs unranked
#18USCSTRONG−9.5
USCSTRONG−9.529
LIB@
DELO/U 50.5road favoritelaying 7EPA edge +0.131/play (off +0.0082 / def -0.0146)
LIBBANK IT−730
AUB@#17
TENNO/U 54.5home favoritelaying 7ranked #17 vs unranked
#17TENNSTRONG−7
TENNSTRONG−731
SYR@
CONNO/U 50.5road favorite
SYRSOLID−6.532
AKR@
CMUO/U 46.5home favorite
CMUSOLID−6.533
EMU@
MASSO/U 48.5home favoriterecord edge 4-win vs 2-winEPA edge +0.116/play (off -0.0488 / def +0.0164)
MASSSOLID−6.534
#10
BYU@
TCUO/U 47.5
BYU@TCUO/U 47.5road favoriteranked #10 vs unranked
#10BYUSOLID−6.5
BYUSOLID−6.535
TEM@
USFO/U 48.5home favoriterecord edge 4-win vs 1-winEPA edge +0.102/play (off +0.0272 / def -0.0076)
USFSOLID−6.536
ARST@
ULO/U 47.5home favorite
ULSOLID−6.537
TXST@
SDSUO/U 59.5road favorite
TXSTSOLID−6.538
CIN@
ARIZO/U 55.5home favorite
ARIZSOLID−6.539
#7
ALA@#16
MSSTO/U 59.5
ALA@#16MSSTO/U 59.5road favoriteranking gap (#7 vs #16)
#7ALASOLID−6
ALASOLID−640
ORST@
CSUO/U 61.5road favorite
ORSTSOLID−641
MICH@
MINNO/U 43.5road favorite
MICHSOLID−5.542
#8
FLA@#25
MIZO/U 57.5
FLA@#25MIZO/U 57.5road favoriteranking gap (#8 vs #25)
#8FLASOLID−5.5
FLASOLID−5.543
BAY@
ASUO/U 49.5home favorite
ASUSOLID−444
NAVY@
AFAO/U 46.5home favorite
AFASOLID−3.545
LOU@
NCSUO/U 58.5road favorite
LOUSOLID−3.546
OHIO@
KENTO/U 50.5road favoriteEPA edge +0.119/play (off -0.0538 / def +0.0514)
OHIOSOLID−3.547
PITT@
VTO/U 54.5home favorite
VTLEAN−348
WVU@
ISUO/U 53.5home favorite
ISULEAN−349
SJSU@
HAWO/U 51.5home favorite
HAWLEAN−350
WKU@
NMSUO/U 57.5home favorite
NMSULEAN−2.551
PSU@
NUO/U 45.5road favorite
PSULEAN−2.552
CAL@
UNLVO/U 53.5home favorite
UNLVLEAN−2.553
UVA@
FSUO/U 51.5road favorite
UVALEAN−2.554
ODU@
GASTO/U 51.5home favoriterecord edge 3-win vs 1-win
GASTLEAN−2.555
#24
UK@
SCO/U 53.5
UK@SCO/U 53.5home favorite
SCLEAN−2.556
GASO@
CCUO/U 54.5road favorite
GASOLEAN−2.557
ARMY@
LTO/U 47.5road favorite
ARMYLEAN−2.558
UNT@
TLSAO/U 57.5road favorite
UNTLEAN−1.559
FRES@
WSUO/U 45.5home favorite
WSULEAN−1.5Upset Radar
Underdogs the model backs against the grain — ranked by signal strength. This is the edge over your pool.
How a dog scores
Situationalhome dog +2thin line ≤3 +2road fav +1dog hotter +2coin-flip +1
Rankingranked dog vs unranked +2higher-ranked dog +2
Efficiency · EPAdog more efficient +3fav record > EPA (crash) +2dog due to bounce +1
8+ break from the pack 5–7 live dog 3–4 long shot
7signal
TLSAoverUNTLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (1.5)fav on the roaddog hotter (3-win vs UNT 2-win)
7signal
FRESoverWSULIVE DOGthin line (1.5)dog hotter (3-win vs WSU 1-win)EPA says dog is BETTER (-0.0082 vs -0.0952/play) — mispriced
6signal
KENToverOHIOLIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flipFAV record outruns EPA (#109 eff, crash +0.288) — regression risk
6signal
#24UKoverSCLIVE DOG
UKoverSCLIVE DOGthin line (2.5)dog hotter (3-win vs SC 2-win)RANKED dog (#24) over an unranked fav
5signal
NUoverPSULIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the road
5signal
CONNoverSYRLIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roaddog hotter (2-win vs SYR 1-win)
5signal
#14IOWAover#5OSULIVE DOG
IOWAover#5OSULIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roaddog hotter (4-win vs OSU 3-win)
5signal
FSUoverUVALIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the road
5signal
RICEoverUTSALIVE DOGHOME dogfav on the roadFAV record outruns EPA (#73 eff, crash +0.276) — regression risk
5signal
CCUoverGASOLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the road
5signal
LToverARMYLIVE DOGHOME dogthin line (2.5)fav on the roaddog D pressures 24% of dropbacks
4signal
#16MSSTover#7ALALONG SHOT
MSSTover#7ALALONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
WVUoverISULONG SHOTthin line (3)dog hotter (3-win vs ISU 2-win)
4signal
MINNoverMICHLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flipdog D pressures 24% of dropbacks
4signal
BUFFoverWMULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
NCSUoverLOULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
ODUoverGASTLONG SHOTthin line (2.5)FAV record outruns EPA (#111 eff, crash +0.553) — regression risk
4signal
CSUoverORSTLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roadboth winning — coin flip
4signal
SJSUoverHAWLONG SHOTthin line (3)dog hotter (2-win vs HAW 1-win)
3signal
PITToverVTLONG SHOTthin line (3)both winning — coin flip
3signal
DELoverLIBLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
UNCover#3NDLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
BALLoverTOLLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
#25MIZover#8FLALONG SHOT
MIZover#8FLALONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roaddog D pressures 22% of dropbacks
3signal
CALoverUNLVLONG SHOTthin line (2.5)both winning — coin flip
3signal
CLToverMEMLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
TCUover#10BYULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
CLEMover#4MIALONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
COLOover#12TTULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the roaddog D pressures 20% of dropbacks
3signal
RUTGover#6IULONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
3signal
SDSUoverTXSTLONG SHOTHOME dogfav on the road
Saturday-Night Tiebreaker
Closest guess to the combined final total wins a tie. Pick a number.
CIN@ARIZ55.5combined total
SJSU@HAW51.5combined total